Israelis vote Tuesday in a parliamentary election that will test whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu can keep power, after the final polls of three major Israeli television networks projected his coalition well short of a majority.1,4,5
It is the first parliamentary election since the October 7 attacks, and 39 parties are running, though essentially one man is on the ballot: Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for three decades and is the country’s longest-serving prime minister. His campaign has framed the vote as existential for Israelis.1,5
On October 24, tens of thousands of people marched in Tel Aviv, gathering at Hostages Square to demand a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 attacks. “We cannot be a dictatorship!” said one woman. “And we cannot have these criminals running our country.”1
The divide over Netanyahu stems from changes that sidelined the judiciary, an ongoing trial on corruption charges and allegations that he failed to heed prior warnings about October 7. Netanyahu called the judicial changes “judicial reform” to stop what he often calls a “judicial dictatorship” ruling over elected officials, and he denies wrongdoing in the corruption cases.1,5
At a market outside Tel Aviv, restaurant owner Benny Abraham was asked whom he would vote for. “Likud and Bibi Netanyahu,” he replied. “Bibi can handle the whole world,” Abraham said. “Bibi is charismatic. He has a strong voice. The world loves him.” He added, “He’s the king of Israel.”1
Others at the market were more critical. Liat, whose husband is Sharon, said, “I don’t hate him, OK, I think he did the good things to Israel, but no more.” Sharon described Netanyahu as “more or less, very good politician, but not a [good manager].”1
Margalit Moses, 80, said she does not feel the prime minister protects her. She was kidnapped by Hamas on October 7, and nearly a third of the residents of her kibbutz, Nir Oz, were killed or captured. “I hope people will understand that we have to change the government so the new government will be more middle, or a little bit left,” she said. “We’ll change the mind in Israel about the Arabs. If we can make peace with them and live in peace with them, it’s, for me, very important.”1
The main challenger is Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff whose son was killed fighting Hamas shortly after the Gaza War began. Eisenkot left Netanyahu’s government in 2024, accusing him of prolonging the war and delaying a hostage deal to appease his right-wing coalition partners. Polls show his party with a clear lead, but he would likely need a coalition with at least four other parties.1
Political analyst Dahlia Scheindlin said Eisenkot “represents the anti-Bibi, something more pragmatic,” and that he is unlikely to change course dramatically on the wars in Gaza and Iran, the issues of most concern to President Trump. She said Israelis expect him to form a government without religious extremists or right-wing ultra-nationalist populists, and that he wants to establish a state commission of inquiry into October 7th and draft the ultra-Orthodox, which she called “two overpowering issues in Israeli life.”1
President Trump endorsed Netanyahu in a Truth Social post last Sunday, after weeks of hesitation, and suggested that his defeat would have consequences for U.S.-Israel relations. Axios reported, citing a U.S. source and an Israeli source briefed on the matter, that Netanyahu had pleaded with Trump in recent days for more public support. The U.S. source said the White House saw the lobbying as a “sign of desperation.” Neta Molcho, a spokesperson for Likud, denied that the prime minister asked Trump to support his campaign “in recent days or before his endorsement statement.” The White House did not respond to a request for comment.1,4
Three major Israeli television networks released final polls on Friday, all projecting 50 seats for Netanyahu’s bloc in the 120-member Knesset, 17 fewer than his current coalition holds, and 20 seats for Likud, which now holds 32. The polls gave Eisenkot’s opposition bloc 52 to 56 seats and two Arab Israeli parties 14 to 16. The pro-Netanyahu Channel 14, the major outlier, projected 60 seats for his bloc and 30 for Likud in an earlier poll this week.4
One U.S. official described the endorsement as a win-win for Trump regardless of the outcome, and some of Trump’s advisers see opportunity for his Middle East agenda in an Israeli government led by someone else. In Metula, a town on Israel’s border with Lebanon, the mayor stopped flying the American flag after the endorsement.2,3,4
Netanyahu entered Israel’s central political stage in the early 1990s by fueling anger at possible peace deals with the Palestinians and Syria. Israeli political leaders have accused him of leading incitement that motivated the 1995 assassination of then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, and he denies any responsibility. He won the 1996 election and became Israel’s youngest prime minister. After October 7, Ronen Bar, who was Shin Bet chief in 2023, sued him for defamation over his deflection of blame onto the security establishment.5
Despite the polls, Scheindlin said there is still a chance that Netanyahu could be prime minister a year from now. “Absolutely. He is the master of engineering politicians, coalition bargaining. He has more experience than anybody else at masterminding the political system within legal means. And so, we certainly could be in a situation where Netanyahu is prime minister a year from now.”1
