The U.S. military has drawn up options for renewed strikes on Iran, with Central Command holding plans ready for follow-up attacks if the White House authorizes them, The Hill reported, as President Donald Trump suggested strikes could come as soon as Sunday.4,1
The options are described as applying to a period after the Nov. 3 midterm elections. Axios reported earlier this month that the Pentagon had instructed Central Command to complete preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations, and that a renewed campaign could target Iranian energy facilities, infrastructure and nuclear sites, its sources said. The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the United States and Israel have drawn up joint plans for an attack on Iran after the midterms. The preparations are not an order to attack, and it remains unclear which options Trump might approve or when.1,4
The planning falls within a conflict that began on Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel launched a military operation against Iran, codenamed Epic Fury. Al Jazeera described the war as approaching its eighth month, while The Japan Times wrote that it was entering its ninth.1,6
At a midterm rally in Fort Myers, Florida, on Friday, Trump said, "We may do another little Epic Fury, or they'll agree." On Saturday he suggested the United States could strike as soon as "tomorrow" while holding out the possibility of a "big, beautiful" agreement with Tehran, and he declined to disclose the timing of any attack. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said in an interview, "Could there be a strike this weekend? Absolutely." Asked about the remark before the rally, Trump said, "That's my ambassador to Turkey. He's a pretty powerful man, I guess," adding, "If that's the case, I don't know anything about it."2,1
A memo sent Friday by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran had "substantially increased efforts to target US personnel," with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages" in the Middle East and elsewhere. The memo, as publicly reported, did not identify specific targets or when any attack might occur. CNN reported Friday that the State Department had adjusted staffing at embassies in several countries, including Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Lebanon, and had ordered non-emergency personnel and family members to leave Saudi Arabia amid attacks by Iranian-backed Houthis.1,2
The U.S. is also deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, along with the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit, with the deployments due by the end of November. Al Jazeera put the additional personnel at roughly 10,000 soldiers, while The Japan Times described them as 10,000 additional sailors and Marines.1,6
Julie Norman, an associate fellow at Chatham House, said, "I think this particular drawing up of plans is an immediate posturing deterrent, but also a very real option after the midterms." Asli Aydintasbas, an expert on the Middle East at the Brookings Institution, said, "All indications point to a resumption of war and a major bombing campaign, although the timing remains uncertain." Bradley Bowman, a foreign policy and defense expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, took a different view: "The smart thing for the president to do would be to let the current strategy play out."1,6
The Atlantic reported Thursday that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has advocated sustained economic pressure on Iran, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has urged Trump to pursue another round of strikes aimed at toppling the Iranian regime. According to that report, the administration is considering combining both approaches, potentially with several days of strikes after the midterms. Bessent wrote Friday that oil exports from the Persian Gulf "are roaring back and have surpassed pre-conflict levels." Mike Waltz, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said Friday, "The president and the U.S. Navy can maintain this blockade for their foreseeable future. The maximum pressure campaign is only tightening."2,3
Iran has paired calls for more negotiations with warnings of a wider response. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said in remarks broadcast Saturday, "We were having negotiations, the cowards [Americans] messed everything up," before adding that efforts to conclude an agreement should continue. On Sunday, Iran's army said it had shot down a US-developed LUCAS drone over the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.1
Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesman Hossein Mohebi described a shift in Iran's military posture. "Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive," he said. Iran has warned that countries hosting bases used in US attacks could become targets. Iran has also claimed that seven oil tankers caught fire or sustained damage in and around the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week.1,3
Reuters, quoting Iranian security officials, has reported that Tehran has drawn up plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if US and Israeli attacks resume. One official warned, "If Iran is attacked, there will be no more red lines … from undersea cables to military bases, including covert ones." Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in the Financial Times that Iran was prepared to give diplomacy another chance, but added that "there is little reason to expect progress now." The Japan Times, citing a person familiar with Tehran's thinking who was not named, reported that Iran is bracing for a fresh U.S. bombing campaign around the midterms.1,2,6
Oil prices rose on the uncertainty. Salon, citing The New York Times, reported that Brent crude rose above $117 a barrel on Friday, its highest level since April. The New York Post put Brent futures up 2.7% at $116.24, their highest since early May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 652 points, or 1.2%, and the S&P 500 dropped 0.5%, with the Post citing fears of escalation in the Middle East and concerns about tech companies' spending on AI. AAA put the national average for regular gasoline at $4.29 a gallon.3,5
According to a Pew Research Center survey conducted from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, roughly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the way Trump has handled the Iran conflict. Israel holds its election on Tuesday. The Japan Times wrote that if Benjamin Netanyahu loses, his chief rival, Gadi Eisenkot, may not be as eager to restart the Iran war. It is not known when Trump will decide whether to approve strikes.6
