Brazilians vote on Sunday in a closely fought presidential runoff between the incumbent, left-wing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and right-wing senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.1,3,5
Lula, who is 80, is seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in office. Bolsonaro, 45, is aiming to return his family name to power. Voting begins at 8am local time, 11:00 GMT, and closes at 5pm local time, 20:00 GMT. Al Jazeera put the number of eligible voters at nearly 160 million, while Breitbart said over 158 million voters are called to the polls.1,2,3,5
In the first round on October 4, Bolsonaro came top with 47 percent of the vote to Lula’s 45 percent, according to France 24, which said he bested Lula by more than 2.2 million votes. Neither candidate won an outright majority, which forced Sunday’s runoff. About 33 million people did not cast a vote in that round, and US President Donald Trump called the result a “very big” victory.1,2,3
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. He is under house arrest due to ill health, and France 24 reported that he is barred from running. Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to release his father.1,3
Flávio Bolsonaro has promised a tough crackdown on organised crime, along with tax and public spending cuts. He has also pledged to build El Salvador-style megaprisons, designate transnational gangs as terrorist organisations and try defendants as young as 16 as adults. Lula’s approval ratings have fallen as low as 24 percent this term. In response, his government has promised to share the benefits from extracting Brazil’s rare minerals, increased Bolsa Familia payments by 15 percent, cut fuel taxes and pardoned government debts of 3.6 million small businesses. With days to go, Brazil’s Senate approved rules backed by Lula’s administration to reduce the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours.1,3
Polls released on Saturday showed the race close. A CNT/MDA poll gave Bolsonaro 46.3 percent to Lula’s 45 percent, and a BTG/Nexus poll had Bolsonaro at 50.5 percent to Lula’s 49.5 percent. Breitbart, citing a summary of 17 surveys, said Bolsonaro was numerically ahead in 15 of them and that the gaps were “within the margin of error.” Al Jazeera described the race as about even, while Breitbart described Bolsonaro as ahead in most polls.2,5
On Saturday, Lula addressed a large crowd on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro, where thousands of supporters filled the sands in red. He said the election was a matter of “sovereignty” and that voters would choose between the candidate who kissed the Brazilian flag and the one who kissed the American flag. Lula’s administration has accused the United States of interfering in Brazil’s election, an allegation Washington has called “baseless.”1,5
Bolsonaro campaigned on the eve of the vote in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais, a state that has been a must-win for presidential hopefuls since the 1980s. In a social media video, he told supporters, “The time is almost here.” He added, “There are only a few hours left before we shape the future of our nation for the next 30 or 40 years.” Hundreds of bikers roared for him at a rally in the same period, Al Jazeera reported.1,5
In Barra de Tijuca, Rio de Janeiro, where Jair Bolsonaro has a home, supporters rallied dressed in the national colours. One told BBC News: “Brazil needs change, and Flávio is the person that represents that today, after so many years of the Left destroying the economy and the country.” A supporter named Roberta told BBC News: “This movement is to show we have strength. We’ve woken up, we’re coming to the street to make a difference and turn the vote around.”1
The Trump administration has also featured in the campaign. Trump announced 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods last year, citing among other reasons the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, and this year imposed a new round of tariffs, citing unfair trade practices despite a US surplus. Shortly after receiving Flávio Bolsonaro at the White House, Trump classified Brazil’s biggest drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organisations, a move Lula’s administration opposed as a pretext for intervention. Trump has voiced support for Bolsonaro in the election. The Trump administration did not respond to a request for comment on whether it is seeking to influence the outcome.3,5
Flávio Bolsonaro has acknowledged accepting millions of dollars from banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father’s life. He is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case, and he denies any wrongdoing.3,5
A dispute over financial disclosure has also dominated the final stretch. Breitbart reported that Lula said he would not debate Bolsonaro again unless Bolsonaro authorised the release of extensive financial, tax and phone records for his family. Bolsonaro agreed and made a counter-challenge, asking Lula to disclose his own corporate credit card expenses. Both campaigns submitted information to Brazil’s Superior Electoral Tribunal. Breitbart reported that a Supreme Court justice, André Mendonça, said both campaigns could release the information on their own without judicial involvement, and that none of it had been publicly disclosed at the time of its Friday morning report.2
Polls close at 5pm local time, and the outcome was not known at the time of the reports. Voters will decide whether Lula wins a fourth term or Bolsonaro returns the family to the presidency. Lula, speaking at his rally, put the choice in plain terms: “We’re going to win the election for one simple reason: it’s true that the people want change [but] they want to move forward,” he said. “They don’t want to go backward.”1,5
