The U.S. military has drawn up options to possibly attack Iran after the midterm elections, and Iranian officials say they are preparing for renewed strikes and a broad response of their own.1,4
Senior U.S. officials told the New York Times, which reported the plans on Wednesday, that the United States and Israel have "developed specific plans" for a "short but intensive operation" in Iran. The targets would include nuclear facilities, energy infrastructure, and the country's arsenal of missiles and drones. One official said the goal would be to force Iran into "diplomatic concessions" by further weakening its economy, as negotiations to end the conflict have gone nowhere.4
The conflict began in late February. The Hill described it as having lasted more than eight months and reported that U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, has plans ready to conduct follow-up strikes against Iran if the White House authorizes them.1,4
The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, and Israel's election is set for October 27. Polls show that high energy prices brought on by the Iran war are hurting Donald Trump's Republican Party. DW wrote that after the elections, Trump may feel less politically constrained. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has campaigned on a platform of regime change in Iran.4
On October 8, Trump posted on social media that the United States would not attack Iran before the midterms, citing "productive discussions" with Tehran. The United States last launched strikes on Iran in early September.4
On October 15, Trump told Newsmax that he was considering a strike on Pickaxe Mountain, near the Natanz nuclear complex, where U.S. officials say Iran may have moved sensitive nuclear-related material underground. The next day, CNN reported that Trump is considering using a Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb on Iranian targets. DW noted that the bomb creates a blast wave above ground, so its effectiveness against underground facilities such as Pickaxe would be limited.4
Two U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups are in the Arabian Sea, and a third is expected to arrive by late November. Earlier in October, Axios reported that the Pentagon had instructed U.S. Central Command "to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran." The United States has also maintained a blockade of Iranian oil exports in the Strait of Hormuz, which has sapped Tehran's oil revenues.4
Talks have snagged over Iran's nuclear program, which U.S. officials say must top the agenda. Iran's latest proposal, sent through Qatari mediators, would reopen the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control in exchange for the United States lifting its maritime blockade, releasing frozen assets and ending military actions.4
Citing Iranian officials, Reuters reported this week that Iran is "preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war," and that Tehran was prolonging negotiations to try to weaken Trump ahead of the midterms. Iran has also been rebuilding missile and drone capabilities that were hit in a wave of strikes during the first weeks of the war.4
Ali Asghar Shafieian, a media adviser to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, told DW that although the United States holds a significant technological and military advantage, Iran's strategy is based on preserving the government's hold on the country rather than matching U.S. strength. "The United States has the upper hand in military power and technology, but Iran's strength is in how it deals with a crisis," Shafieian said.4
Iran has told regional governments that U.S. military bases and critical infrastructure could become targets if neighboring countries assist another U.S. or Israeli operation. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that participation or cooperation by regional states would result in a "decisive and proportionate response." Araghchi posted on X on Wednesday: "Iran is prepared to give diplomacy another chance if we see strong evidence of a sincere desire by US to build trust & reach a just solution." He added, "But, if US chooses war over diplomacy, it'll certainly result in an even greater strategic failure."4
The reports do not include a comment on the record from the Pentagon or the White House about the plans. It is not known from the reporting whether a decision to strike has been made. The Hill described the options as U.S. military plans, while the New York Times reported plans developed by the United States and Israel together. The U.S. midterm elections are set for November 3, and a third carrier is expected in late November.1,3,4
Rahman Ghahremanpour, a Tehran-based political analyst, told DW that Iran's preparations extend beyond missiles and drones to prioritizing internal security, including confronting armed opposition groups and preparing for possible protests. Some factions within Iran have supported returning to a negotiated agreement, he said, but he believes Washington's demands are now so extensive that even officials who favor compromise struggle to build domestic support for them. "For now, we are facing a deadlock," Ghahremanpour said. "Iranian officials do not appear optimistic about reaching an agreement."4
