Israeli President Isaac Herzog is expected to announce on Sunday who will be given the first chance to form a governing coalition, after Arab-led parties holding 19 seats in the 120-seat Knesset said they would support former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot over longtime Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.1,4,5
As of Thursday, after days of consultations between Herzog and parties elected last month, Eisenkot's bloc held 48 seats and added 19 more through Arab-led support for a total of 67, compared with 46 for Netanyahu and his right-wing allies, according to Herzog. A candidate needs 61 seats to form a government, and Herzog said the numbers indicated Eisenkot should have the first opportunity, though success was not assured.1,5
The result left neither side with a majority on its own. Netanyahu outperformed his polling numbers and held off a challenge from Eisenkot, who leads the center-right Yashar party, but Netanyahu and his Likud party had not secured enough votes in the Knesset to form a government. The Arab-led parties gained a record number of seats after unprecedented voter turnout by Palestinians with Israeli citizenship, reversing a longstanding trend of Arab voters sitting out Israeli elections and placing them in a central position in the negotiations.1,5
Herzog's role, otherwise largely ceremonial, is to select which party leader tries first when no party wins outright. On Wednesday he formally accepted the election as legitimate and dismissed complaints from Netanyahu and his supporters that the Arab parties "stole" the election with voting irregularities and support from foreign parties. Israel's Shin Bet intelligence service was still examining what Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg described as a "widespread phenomenon involving the influx of substantial funds into Israel from foreign states," but Sohlberg said on Wednesday that "these are merely suspicions, and even if they are substantiated, the scope of their potential impact is limited." Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara on Tuesday rejected a request from Shin Bet to interrogate lawmakers and party officials, saying there was not enough "evidence to justify such action."1,5
Herzog has until November 11 to name his choice, and the nominee would then have 42 days to secure the parliamentary votes needed. If that candidate fails, others can make the attempt, and if no one can assemble a 61-seat coalition, Herzog will schedule another election for early next year. Until a coalition is formed, Netanyahu, who has served 19 years over three tenures as prime minister, remains head of a caretaker government.1,5
The two Arab-led groups at the center of the talks take different approaches. The Joint List, a three-party alliance with 11 seats, rejects Zionist parties that define Israel as a Jewish state and calls for a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza with East Jerusalem as its capital. Raam, an Islamist group with eight seats that takes a more practical view of Israeli politics, joined an Israeli governing coalition in 2021, making it the first independent Arab party to do so.1,5
The Joint List said its three member parties unanimously decided to support Eisenkot "in response to the public demand to prevent Netanyahu and his government from returning to power." The endorsement was qualified: the alliance said Eisenkot's bloc had not been eager to "confront Netanyahu's path, as well as to fight incitement against Arab citizens and attempts to undermine the legitimacy of their political decision." The party said it would formally present its declaration to Herzog on Thursday afternoon. Raam and the Democrats also backed Eisenkot.1,5,6
The Joint List does not plan to join any incoming administration. Its head, Yousef Jabareen, wrote on X on Thursday, "We will do everything to remove the greatest threat to all of us," adding, "which is the continuation of the rule of Netanyahu." Jabareen added that the alliance would demand the government stop race-baiting and demonizing the country's Arab population, call for increased investment and a more concerted fight against organized crime in Arab-dominated areas, and seek "an end to the occupation and the wars and a choice of life and peace." He wrote, "Because the two peoples who live here deserve to live with dignity, equality, and peace."1
Even without holding ministries, support from outside could give the Arab-led parties influence over policy, said Diana Buttu, a lawyer and former legal advisor to the Palestine Liberation Organization. "They're saying, 'We will push from behind, but our pushing is not cost-free.' It's not holding on to a ministry, sure. But it's having a say in matters that impact our society," Buttu said. "They will try to have a say over who the ministers are, what laws get passed and don't get passed, and on matters that impact the Palestinian community in general but equality more broadly." Raam has said it would be willing to join an anti-Netanyahu administration.1
That prospect faces resistance inside Eisenkot's own bloc. Political analyst and pollster Dahlia Scheindlin said, "Eisenkot won't be able to form a government with all those parties," adding that at least three parties in Eisenkot's four-party bloc had said they would not want to be in a government with Arab parties, many of whom view Palestinian citizens of Israel as fifth columnists and a threat to national security. The most vociferous opposition has come from Avigdor Lieberman, head of the right-wing secular Yisrael Beiteinu party. "Lieberman is completely against it, and he's put a boycott on building a government with any Arab parties," Scheindlin said, adding that Lieberman had shown flexibility on conscription in an attempt to bring ultra-Orthodox parties into the fold. Supporters of Netanyahu protested outside Eisenkot's residence on Nov. 1 against the formation of a Jewish-Arab government.1
Eisenkot has sought to stabilize his coalition by setting conditions for partners. In a statement on X on Friday, he said Israel was "in the midst of a dangerous political tsunami" and that he would form a "national emergency government" with parties that accept what he called "four foundational principles": recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, accepting the values of Israel's declaration of independence, mandatory military service for all and recognition of Hamas as a terrorist organization that must be dismantled. Both Arab-led parties condemned Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and the killing of civilians but declined to label the Palestinian group a terrorist organization, saying such a move would serve as justification for Israel's assault on Gaza.1
Netanyahu on Thursday criticized Eisenkot for relying on the Arab parties to form a government, a move that was long unthinkable for leading Israeli politicians because those parties are largely aligned with the Palestinian cause. Referring to Raam leader Mansour Abbas, whose party won eight seats in the October election and who met Herzog on Thursday, Netanyahu said, "President Herzog asks Abbas one question: Is Hamas a terrorist organization? Abbas's answer: 'You cannot put us to this test.'" Netanyahu added, "As we said during the election campaign, Abbas recommended Eisenkot for prime minister on Thursday because he cannot form a government without the Arab parties." In a televised appearance on Wednesday, Netanyahu warned against a government "dependent on extremist Islam and these Islamist parties, which deny the very existence of a Jewish state." He said, "They seek to erase the Jewish identity of the State of Israel. They say this openly. They seek to prevent us from having the ability to defend ourselves against our enemies," and added, "Not only will such a government not fight our enemies, it will simply dismantle us from within. This is existential."5
Abbas, asked by Herzog whether he would condemn Hamas as a terrorist organization, declined to do so directly. "Leave me this space to be a bridge. To also influence the other side. We are a bridge. Don't turn us into supporters of terrorism and traitors," Abbas told Herzog. Abbas said his party had renounced political violence and fully supports President Donald Trump's peace plan for Gaza, including disarmament for Hamas and other groups, and added, "Leave me a space to protect myself and my family as well." Herzog called it "not entirely clear" that Eisenkot would succeed, citing what he called "the mutual vetoes between the blocs and within the blocs themselves." One of the two main ultra-Orthodox parties, a longtime Netanyahu ally, declined to recommend any candidate, and United Torah Judaism, which seeks to maintain a military service exemption for religious students and traditionally supported Netanyahu, had not backed either side as of Thursday.1,4,5
