Senior officials from Russia, Ukraine and the United States are scheduled to meet in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday and Wednesday for the first trilateral talks on ending the war in Ukraine since February, as the full-scale war nears the five-year mark.1,4,6,7
The two-day session will focus on postwar security arrangements, de-escalation and humanitarian measures, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said. U.S. officials said Moscow and Kyiv were privately showing "a little bit of flexibility" on control of eastern Ukraine, though Moscow and Kyiv's positions on ending the conflict remain far apart.1,7
Jared Kushner, President Donald Trump's son-in-law and a member of the U.S. delegation alongside Witkoff, said the talks would address the "postwar security concerns" of both Russia and Ukraine. "An important part of this process is encouraging all parties to begin thinking seriously about what comes after the war," Kushner wrote on X.1,2
Kushner said the U.S. work had focused on four linked aims. "Our work has focused on four interconnected priorities: ending the fighting, developing credible postwar security guarantees and arrangements that reduce the risk of renewed conflict, preparing a comprehensive economic and prosperity plan for Ukraine, and advancing humanitarian measures to alleviate suffering and address the human consequences of this war," he wrote.2
Territory remains the central obstacle. Moscow has demanded that Ukraine withdraw from the parts of Donetsk it still holds and has sought Ukrainian withdrawal from four regions Moscow annexed in September 2022 but never fully captured, along with Ukraine abandoning its bid to join NATO, accepting limits on its military and dropping restrictions on the Russian language and the Moscow-affiliated Orthodox Church. Kyiv has rejected ceding ground it still holds, proposing instead to freeze the contact line in sections it describes as crucial to its future security, and says an immediate ceasefire should come first, with territorial questions settled only in a direct meeting between the presidents.1,4
Security guarantees are the other stated focus. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine and its allies have discussed guarantees similar to NATO's Article 5, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all. "If Russia starts again, what will happen?" Zelensky asked in a November 5 interview. "Who will do what, with what means, and when?" Russia has opposed Ukraine joining NATO and rejected the deployment of foreign troops in Ukraine after any agreement, warning it would view European troops there as legitimate targets, while also seeking guarantees of its own, including its longstanding demand that NATO roll back deployments in Central and Eastern Europe.4,1,2
A U.S. framework under discussion includes security consultations and crisis communications hotlines as well as "reciprocal de-escalation measures," greater military transparency, and a possible re-activation of the NATO-Russia Council, which has been largely paused since 2022. Kushner said the framework would build on existing European security agreements while respecting sovereignty and independent decision-making. A U.S. official said the territorial and security questions could not be settled separately, saying, "They will not solve the Donetsk issue and the territorial issue until they know what the security architecture is going to be after the war," and adding, "And keep in mind, we're not going to be able to finalise one without the other."1,2
The role of Europe is unresolved. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen urged Monday that NATO allies and EU members be included in any "meaningful discussions about Europe's security architecture," and Zelensky has said Kyiv wants Europe in the talks. Kushner and Witkoff plan to meet before the main session with representatives from Ukraine, the European Union, NATO, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy, and Washington has proposed moving toward a broader multilateral process. "We hope the discussions in Abu Dhabi will create the conditions for that engagement to begin in the near future, as part of a broader multilateral process," Kushner wrote. Russia opposes European participation in the trilateral meeting itself. "No one is going to invite them to the negotiating table," Kremlin foreign affairs adviser Yuri Ushakov said.1,2,3,4
The European officials expected in Abu Dhabi include German adviser Günter Sautter, Italian diplomatic adviser Fabrizio Saggio, U.K. national security adviser Jonathan Powell, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte's chief of staff Geoffrey van Leeuwen, and European Commission official Bjoern Seibert, among others from France and the European Council. Their inclusion followed a push by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who in a letter to European Council President António Costa called for EU leaders meeting in Dublin to decide "once and for all, who sits at the negotiating table representing the European Union, and with what mandate." Two senior officials said the Europeans were not expected inside the room for the main negotiations, and a German official said the format would be "determined as the discussions progress."3
Representing the United States for the trilateral meeting are Kushner and Witkoff, with presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky for Russia, and Foreign Intelligence Service head Rustem Umerov for Ukraine. The Russian group also includes deputy foreign ministers Sergei Ryabkov and Mikhail Galuzin, military intelligence chief Igor Kostyukov and senior General Staff officer Yuri Zhigarlovsky. Ukraine's team also includes presidential chief of staff Kyrylo Budanov and Arakhamia, who leads Zelensky's parliamentary faction.1,2,3
The talks open against continued fighting along the 1,200-kilometre front line and expanded long-range drone and missile strikes by both sides. Ukraine is confronting Russian strikes on its power system as winter approaches, carried out with ballistic missiles and faster jet-powered drones amid a shortage of U.S.-made Patriot interceptors. The BBC noted Ukraine reels from a Russian strike last week on a village in Zaporizhzhia in which at least 40 people were killed. Previous rounds produced prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children but no agreement on territory or security, and last month's localised truce around Russian-occupied Oleshky, brokered with the help of U.S. first lady Melania Trump to allow evacuations and aid deliveries, did not halt fighting elsewhere. Accounts of the earlier diplomacy differ slightly: the BBC described the last trilateral round as the Geneva meeting in February, while DW described U.S.-mediated talks in January and February that went nowhere.1,2,4,7
Trump said in a "60 Minutes" interview broadcast Sunday that Moscow and Kyiv are "very close" to a deal but added that "they're going to end up with a little bit different shape Ukraine." After meeting Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev at the White House last week, he also predicted a wider accord. "It's going to be a big agreement and it's going to involve more than Ukraine," Trump said, adding that it might include all of Europe. In Ukraine, that prospect has drawn scepticism. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the foreign affairs committee in parliament, said he believes Trump wants "a quick deal at the expense of Ukraine," which will certainly be rejected by Kyiv, arguing that pressure through sanctions and deep strikes was needed to move Moscow. "While Putin has a war machine up and running, he has no incentives to negotiate," Merezhko said, adding that Trump's deal to buy diesel from Russia "only encourages Moscow to continue the war."1,4,2
Zelensky has listed security guarantees, an energy ceasefire, unblocking the Black Sea, extended prisoner exchanges and preparation for a leaders' meeting of Ukraine, the United States and Russia as his priorities. Expectations for a breakthrough in Abu Dhabi are low. Kushner said the meeting could at most "build momentum toward the next phase of negotiations," writing, "This is an extraordinarily difficult and complicated conflict," and that Washington was "approaching these discussions with determination and realism." Arakhamia said, "I don't think there will be a breakthrough, after there was such a long break in the negotiation process." "Simply the fact that trilateral talks are being resumed can be counted as a success." Kushner added, "By discussing postwar security, economic recovery, and the mechanisms needed to prevent future conflict, we hope to shift the focus from managing the war toward building the foundations for a durable peace."1,2,7
