Israelis are voting on Tuesday in their first general election since the Hamas attack of Oct. 7, 2023, a contest in which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hold on power is at stake.1,2,4,6,8
Polls opened at 7 a.m. and close at 10 p.m. local time, when Israeli television channels will air exit polls giving the first indications of the outcome. Results are likely to be known within a few hours of the close, but a clear picture could take longer if no party or group of parties has a parliamentary majority. The final tally is expected by Oct. 30, and official results are to be formally published on Nov. 4, a week after the vote.1
Some 7.33 million Israelis are eligible to vote, according to Central Elections Committee figures dated Sept. 6, an increase of 543,177 since the previous election four years ago. The committee listed 12,018 regular polling stations, 6,208 of them accessible, and some will operate on shorter schedules. Some 330,000 young Israelis are voting for the first time. Military voting began on Oct. 21 at Israel Defense Forces bases across operational arenas, including in Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.2
Dean Livne, the committee's acting director-general, said, "This is a celebration of Israeli democracy," and his statement said thousands of employees had worked to ensure every voter could cast a ballot "easily and without fear." In a video posted to X, President Isaac Herzog said, "Election day is a celebration of Israeli democracy. This is the people's day." The committee also warned that rumors and misinformation may circulate online during the day.2
The main challenge to Netanyahu comes from Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief who leads the Yashar party. Opinion polls have suggested a tight race between the two, although the polls have not all pointed the same way. CBS News described Netanyahu's Likud party as lagging in the polls, while NBC News headlined its coverage of new polls as showing Netanyahu in a tight race against his main rival. A Walla poll published Oct. 20 projected Yashar winning 23 seats, compared with 19 for Likud and 14 for Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad alliance, with Netanyahu's coalition bloc at 48 seats and opposition parties at 54.3,4,7,8
Israelis do not vote directly for a prime minister. They vote for party lists in a single nationwide constituency, and the 120 Knesset seats are allocated by proportional representation. Parties must win at least 3.25% of the valid vote to enter the Knesset, and about a dozen are widely thought to have a chance of crossing that threshold, so the final seat allocation will take time. A majority generally requires 61 seats, and no party has ever won an outright majority, so governments are formed by coalitions.1,2,8
After the final tally, Herzog will consult party leaders on whom they want as prime minister and then tap the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government. That nominee has up to 42 days to do so. If the nominee fails, others can try, and if no government emerges, another election is called, with the present cabinet staying on as a caretaker government. Small parties can become kingmakers.1
France 24 wrote that neither Netanyahu's religious and ultranationalist coalition nor the group of parties looking to remove him may have enough support to win a majority, and that Israel's Arab-led parties could emerge as kingmakers if they agree to support one candidate over the other. Nonaligned Arab parties are pushing for heavy turnout.4
France 24 wrote that one of the biggest criticisms levelled at Netanyahu is his failure to take responsibility for the Oct. 7 attack. A recent Channel 12 poll found that responsibility was likely to influence the decisions of 70% of voters, with 83% saying Netanyahu bears at least some degree of responsibility and 8% saying he does not at all. Eisenkot, 66, has pledged to establish an independent state commission of inquiry into the security failures that led to the attack, and France 24 wrote that Netanyahu's government has resisted such an inquiry.4,6
Netanyahu's supporters see him as a steady hand who has guided Israel through multiple wars. Zipporah Bennett, an 85-year-old retiree, said she was voting for him "because he has had the experience of navigating the country through a lot of difficult seasons." President Donald Trump endorsed Netanyahu last week, writing, "Bibi Netanyahu has been a Great Warrior Prime Minister, and an even greater Partner for Peace in combatting the Islamic Republic of Iran." Netanyahu has called Eisenkot "soft" on Iran.4,8
The military draft of ultra-Orthodox men has also become a defining issue. According to a September poll by the Israel Democracy Institute, 72% of Israelis want the ultra-Orthodox Haredim, who avoid military service through religious study, to be drafted. Roughly 80,000 ultra-Orthodox men are subject to the debate. Netanyahu's coalition has included and depended on Haredi parties that oppose drafting yeshiva students, and the opposition has scorned him for backing them.4,6,8
Keith Siegel, an Israeli American who was held hostage in Gaza for 484 days, was asked about Netanyahu's closing argument that only he can keep Israel safe. Siegel, speaking near his home in Kfar Aza, a kibbutz near the Gaza border, said simply, "I don't agree." He added, "I hate war and I hate killing and I hate death, and unnecessary death, from my point of view."6
In Tel Aviv, families of some of those killed on Oct. 7 and former hostages held a moment of silence before polls opened. "Remember all those whose voices are no more," said Yona Adam, whose daughter Mapal Adam was killed.4
