Democrats hold an 8-point lead over Republicans among likely voters one week before the midterm elections, according to a new poll conducted by Marist for NPR and PBS News. Fifty-two percent of likely voters said they would back the Democratic candidate in their congressional district if the election were held today, while 44% said they would back the Republican.1,3,4
The findings suggest Democrats are favored to win control of the U.S. House, but the data also point to reasons a potential wave could be limited. The poll of 1,289 registered voters was conducted Oct. 19-20. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 points for likely voters.1,3
Among registered voters, Democrats lead by 10 points, down from 12 last month. PBS noted that the difference is within the poll's margin of error. Democrats have held a consistent lead each time Marist has asked since last November. Cost of living remains a major concern, with a third of respondents saying they experienced financial hardship in the past year and 4 in 10 saying their personal finances have gotten worse. Shun Maurice, a 47-year-old independent from Arizona who leans toward Democrats, said, "The economy is at the top of my list right now." He said high food and gas prices are a strain.1,3
The poll also measured views of President Donald Trump. Among likely voters, 40% approve of the job he is doing and 59% disapprove, with 53% saying they strongly disapprove. Registered voters gave him 38% approval and 61% disapproval. Just 37% of likely voters have a favorable impression of Trump, while 59% have an unfavorable one. The poll was the first this cycle to apply a likely voter screen, and on several questions likely voters were, within the margin of error, slightly less likely than registered voters to disapprove of the president.1,3
Trump has made himself the face of the Republican campaign. Since mid-September he has held rallies in more than a dozen states, including Texas, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Florida. Trump is not on the ballot, but he has asked voters to "pretend" he is. Among likely voters, 44% said their congressional vote is mostly a vote against Trump, more than double the 21% who said it is a vote for him. About a third, or 35%, said he is not much of a factor.1,3
Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, called that an unusual strategy for a president with more voters disapproving of him than approving. "If your approval rating is upside down, the president doesn't usually say, 'I'm on the ballot,'" Miringoff said.3
Democratic voters appear more eager to turn out. Seventy-one percent of Democrats said they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared with 61% of Republicans and 48% of independents. About one in five likely voters said they have already cast a ballot, and that group favors Democrats 68% to 31%. Those who have yet to vote are evenly split, at 48% for each party. More than 30 million ballots have been cast nationwide, including more than 15.1 million by mail and 15.5 million in person, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. Half of Republican likely voters plan to vote in person on Nov. 3, compared with 31% of Democrats.3
Fifty-one percent of respondents said Democrats will win their local congressional race, and 46% said Republicans will. Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist, said, "The House feels fairly settled for Democrats." He pointed to Republicans spending money in Kansas and Mississippi, where Trump won by 16 and 22 points in 2024. The Cook Political Report shifted its ratings for 47 House seats in October, all in Democrats' favor.3
Payne said the Senate is a closer contest. "I would say a slight lean to Democrats taking the Senate back, but it wouldn't shock me if Republicans held the Senate." Republican strategist Melik Abdul said, "It's not looking so great for us." He said the House is "very much out of our reach" and that he believes Republicans will keep control of the Senate, possibly by a seat or two. "I don't think it will be the blue wave that people are suspecting," he added.3
For context, NPR said Democrats had an average generic-ballot advantage of 7 points in 2018 and 12 points in 2006, and that they won the House in both years with at least 30 seats flipped. PBS said that in October 2018, Democrats held a 9-point edge among likely voters before the party picked up 40 House seats in that year's election. NPR also said redistricting after the 2020 Census, along with a mid-decade round after Trump asked Republican states to redraw their maps, has tilted congressional seats toward Republicans, even though Democrats also redrew maps.1,3
NPR found a notable degree of nervousness among Democrats. While 98% of Democratic likely voters said they would vote for a Democrat, just 81% thought the Democrat would win, a 17-point difference. Some 55% of likely voters said it is more important to vote for candidates with new ideas who will bring about change.1
Chris Agan, a 43-year-old Democrat in Tyler, Texas, said, "This year is different. This year, it feels like every opportunity to vote is a referendum against the party in power." He is backing Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton in the Senate race. Matthew Schroder, a 38-year-old independent in Charlotte, N.C., said his vote this year is not driven by Trump's job performance. "What I have seen on the left-hand side is a little bit more of an embrace of democratic socialism, which I just oppose completely," said Schroder, who is supporting Republican Michael Whatley over Democrat Roy Cooper in the state's closely watched Senate race.1
