A US intelligence memo dated Friday warns that Iran has stepped up efforts to target American personnel overseas, with lethal plots reaching “advanced stages,” as the State Department reduces staff at several embassies in the Middle East.4,5,1
The one-page, unclassified memo was sent by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and Axios first obtained it. It says Iran has “substantially increased efforts to target US personnel,” and Clayton wrote: “The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against US citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.” US officials say the intelligence is one reason the State Department is drawing down personnel at several American embassies across the Middle East, amid mounting fears of a broader regional conflict.5,4,6
The accounts differ on how much the memo specifies. Axios wrote that the document does not identify specific targets, countries outside the Middle East or the nature of the plots, and that the underlying intelligence has already been shared with senior State Department officials. The New York Times, citing unnamed US officials, reported that threats to American officials, including ambassadors, had been assessed in recent weeks and that Iran had lined up potential targets in Europe. Those officials also said some intelligence indicates Iranian operatives are already active within the US.4,1
Washington has not publicly commented on the memo. The Times cited a US official as confirming its authenticity on behalf of the Trump administration. Another official cited by the Times played down Iran’s ability to carry out attacks inside the US and elsewhere, saying Iran lacks the capacity to follow through on all its ambitions.1
According to officials cited by the Times, US agencies consider threats to American citizens in the Middle East to be “at the highest level” since the US-Israel war on Iran began in February. The war began on February 28.1
The drawdown began earlier in the week. The State Department ordered family members and nonessential personnel to leave the US Embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Jeddah and Dhahran. On Wednesday, the department had announced that it was removing nonessential staff from its embassy in Saudi Arabia, citing escalating attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen against Saudi infrastructure.4,1
On Friday, the department ordered reductions in US diplomatic and government personnel at embassies in the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Qatar and Jordan, a US official said, without ordering those staff to depart. Axios and the New York Post described reductions at those four embassies. Al Jazeera, citing CNN, listed six missions, adding Bahrain and Kuwait, where staffing had been quietly cut.4,5,1
“We decided that due to the threat of Houthi attacks and Iranian terror plots, we need to reduce our footprint and keep only essential staff,” the official said. US officials also fear that the Houthis could expand their attacks beyond Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region.4
Iran has not responded to the memo. On Wednesday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that Tehran would follow a new “offensive” strategy if the US renewed attacks. Its spokesman, Hossein Mohebbi, said Tehran would no longer limit its military operations to retaliatory strikes and that the quality, range and power of Iranian missiles had improved. The Pentagon has confirmed that 21 US military personnel have been killed in the Middle East since the war on Iran began.1
Reuters reported, citing two senior Iranian security officials, that Tehran has in-depth plans to target undersea communications cables in the Gulf if there are new US-Israeli attacks. Earlier, Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, warned that cables, data centres and artificial intelligence facilities across the region could come under attack if war with the US breaks out again.1
The memo’s warning comes as the US and Israel are reported to be considering a new military campaign against Iran. Axios wrote that the prospect of renewed US and Israeli military operations, potentially after the midterm elections, adds to the volatile security environment. At a rally in Florida on Friday, President Trump said: “We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or [the Iranians] will agree [to a deal].” He added: “If they’re smart, they will just say, ‘Let’s get down to business,’ but I doubt they will do that because perhaps they’re not smart.”4,1
Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Turkey and special envoy for Syria, told a podcaster there “absolutely” could be a US strike on Iran this weekend. The Post noted that the White House had previously said there would be no such attack before the midterm elections on Nov. 3. Asked about the comment on Friday, Trump said: “That was my ambassador to Turkey? He’s a pretty powerful man, I guess.” He added: “Well, if that’s the case, I don’t know anything about it.”5
The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday from aboard the USS George Washington, one of two US aircraft carriers in the region, that US warships are preparing for another potential military escalation. “We are always prepared,” said Capt. Nicholas DeLeo, commanding officer of the USS George Washington. “We’re always paying attention, focused on our surroundings and ready to react reflexively or proactively.”5
US authorities have long accused Iran of being behind plots targeting US citizens, including assassination attempts against Trump on US soil. The memo says the underlying intelligence needs to reach more US personnel than are currently authorized to receive it, and Clayton offered to downgrade as much of the sensitive intelligence as possible so Rubio could share it more widely with personnel potentially at risk.1,4
