New Zealand voters delivered no clear winner in Saturday's general election, leaving Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's centre-right National Party as the largest party but short of a majority and facing weeks of coalition negotiations.1,3,4
Preliminary results showed National with 42 seats and the opposition Labour Party led by Chris Hipkins with 36, with each party on just under 30 percent of the popular vote and only about 3,500 votes between them late on Saturday night.1,3,4
The precise share of the count differed between outlets. The BBC said more than 99 percent of votes had been counted with National and Labour neck-and-neck in vote share; DW and Al Jazeera put the count at 95 percent, with DW reporting fewer than 4,000 votes separating the two parties.1,3,4
Luxon told supporters in Auckland that National remained in front and had a route back to office but acknowledged the uncertainty. "National is once again the largest party in parliament, and we have a pathway to forming the next government," Luxon said. "But right now it is too close to call." He had earlier congratulated Hipkins on a "very hard-fought race" and said, "whatever the final count, we are incredibly proud of each and everyone for you."1,3,4
Luxon said he would run a caretaker government until final results were confirmed later in the month, adding, "With those final results there can then be meaningful negotiations." The Electoral Commission is not due to announce the official result until November 27, which will include ballots cast by New Zealanders abroad, and there is no set timeframe for when a government must be formed.1,4
Hipkins showed no sign of conceding, saying the "shape of the next government" will remain uncertain "for a while." He told supporters, "New Zealand has spoken. It may take us a little bit longer to figure out exactly what it is that you've said," and added, "Our next parliament is going to require all of us to compromise, to work together, and to find common ground."1,3,4
The current three-party ruling coalition led by National, governing with ACT and New Zealand First, would hold 67 seats in parliament on preliminary results, a wafer-thin majority of one seat, and would have a slim lead over the left-leaning bloc if a deal could be reached. Projections gave the Greens 16 seats, ACT 13, New Zealand First 12, the Opportunity Party 7 and Te Pāti Māori, which represents Māori interests, 5, with National alone 19 seats short of the simple majority needed to govern.1,3,4
The centrist Opportunity Party crossed the 5 percent threshold to enter parliament for the first time and was in a position to talk to either major bloc, though its leaders said they would negotiate first with the party that secures the most seats. Speaking at the party's watch party, leader Qiulae Wong told supporters, "We believe that we can change the way we do politics to focus on the future, on the next generation, and on finding common ground."1,4
Professor Andrew Geddis of the University of Otago, an expert in election law, described "the Opportunity Party as a wildcard player" that could "determine which bloc of parties is able to govern." He said, "It will come down to some very fine vote margins not just between the parties, but in individual electorates. We are going to have to wait for the special votes to be processed and counted over the next three weeks," referring to votes cast outside a voter's electorate, including overseas.1
The campaign was shaped by the cost of living and unemployment, and at times dubbed the supermarket election as grocery prices and supermarket competition became a battleground. The Greens proposed forcing the country's two main supermarkets to divest stores to create publicly-owned shops and saw their vote rise by a couple of percentage points, while National pledged to return the budget to surplus through fiscal discipline while expanding the national pension scheme and Labour promised cheaper healthcare and transport.1,4
Former parliament member Peter Dunne, who served as a minister in both National and Labour-led governments, said the election is "much more of a cost-of-living election," with voters looking at "which of the main blocs is better placed to ease the cost of living burden on New Zealanders." Julian McCrann, head of polling at Roy Morgan, said the cost of living was the main issue for many New Zealanders, adding, "Three years ago, Luxon came in saying he'd be making New Zealanders' lives better and solving these economic issues, but he hasn't really delivered." More than half the country no longer sees New Zealand as a land of opportunity, according to an annual social cohesion survey, and record numbers have been leaving the country, with many going to Australia.1,4
New Zealand holds a general election every three years under a mixed-member proportional system in which each voter makes two choices, for a local electorate candidate and a political party, a system in which most governments are coalitions. Polling stations opened at 9am on Saturday and closed at 7pm. Dunne said if both main parties of the blocs end up relatively evenly placed, then the onus could go on the Opportunity Party, noting, "If Opportunity Party reaches parliament, it will talk to the largest party first, which appears to be the National Party, but there's no guarantee that they could come to an arrangement." He added, "We could face weeks of interparty negotiations to form a government. Parliament has to sit by early January, so there's a real prospect that we could go into Christmas with no clear government in New Zealand."1,4
