Early voting for the 2026 midterm elections is running ahead of the last midterms in several battleground states, and registered Democrats have cast a larger share of ballots so far than Republicans, according to early-vote data and analysis.1,4
The totals differ by source and by date. The Guardian said more than 23 million Americans had already voted in person or by mail as of Friday afternoon. ABC News, citing the University of Florida's Election Lab, put the figure at more than 18 million as of Thursday morning. A CBS News video description said more than 15 million Americans had already voted early in the 2026 midterms.1,4,3
Figures from the University of Florida's Election Lab, as of Oct. 23 and cited by the Guardian, show Michigan and Ohio each past 900,000 ballots cast. Georgia has recorded almost 1.5 million early votes, North Carolina more than 1.2 million, Florida almost 2.2 million and Texas more than 2.8 million.1
Compared with the last midterms, early voting is running well ahead in many battleground states. The Guardian reported that early votes in Georgia already represent more than 40% of the total turnout from the 2022 midterms, with Texas at 35%, North Carolina at 33% and Florida at 27%. Michigan and Ohio are recording similarly high paces, it said.1
ABC News' own analysis used earlier data. As of Oct. 19, nearly 850,000 votes had been cast in Georgia, and about 670,000 Michigan voters had already cast ballots, according to the analysis. Those figures predate the Guardian's numbers by several days.4,1
The Guardian said registered Democrats account for 45% of early ballots cast, compared with 30% from Republicans. It noted that this measures returned ballots, not candidate selection. The party gap is particularly pronounced in North Carolina, Kansas and Iowa, which the Guardian described as states that traditionally favor Republicans.1
ABC News reported that registered Democrats and voters modeled as likely to vote for Democrats have cast an even higher share of early votes in all states except Alaska and Michigan, where the share is similar to 2024. Its analysis, run on Tuesday, used voter file data from L2. ABC News said modeled partisans are voters in states without party registration, whose likely party L2 predicts, and noted that neither party registration nor a modeled lean guarantees a voter will cast a ballot for that party's candidates.4
More than 57 million mail-in ballots have been requested or sent nationally, according to NBC News using data from TargetSmart. That is greater than the 52 million requested in 2022. The University of Florida's Election Lab puts the figure for mail-in ballots requested at more than 59 million. Executive orders from the Trump administration sought to restrict mail-in voting, and the Supreme Court struck them down in September.1
Polling cited by ABC News points in a similar direction on enthusiasm. The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll found that 72% of Democratic voters said they were certain to vote, compared with 65% of Republican voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 36% of Democrats said they were very enthusiastic about voting in the 2026 midterms, compared with 29% of Republicans.4
ABC News also calculated past patterns from a large Pew Research Center survey that matched respondents with their 2024 vote records. Democrats held a 24-point margin among absentee or mail ballots, while Republicans won early in-person voting by 14 points and Election Day voting by 16 points. ABC News said these estimates were in line with actual vote totals from the 11 states that break out results by voting method.4
The ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll also found that likely voters who plan to vote early, or who already have, supported Democrats over Republicans in congressional vote choice by 26 points. Those planning to vote in person on Election Day favored Republicans by 11 points. The Guardian noted that Republicans have historically preferred to vote on Election Day, and said strategists worry the wider Democratic margin signals a "red undertow" of Republican voters staying home.4,1
ABC News cautioned that the early numbers do not show whether low-propensity voters, meaning those who skip some elections, will cast ballots later in the early period or on Election Day. "The early vote numbers are only one piece of the story," the network's analysis said.4
