Brazilians voted on Sunday in a polarizing presidential runoff between incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, a race that carries implications for U.S. influence in Latin America.1,5
The winner must take more than 50% of the vote to become Brazil’s next leader in January, and polls showed the two candidates in a neck-and-neck race. Lula, 80, is a left-of-center veteran politician who first governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010. Bolsonaro, 45, is an ally of President Donald Trump and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a sentence for attempting a coup.1,3,5
A Bolsonaro win would mark a pivot to the right in Latin America’s most populous country and largest economy, in a year when Trump allies have scored victories in Chile, Peru and Colombia. A victory for Lula would leave Brazil and Mexico with left-of-center leaders.1,5
In the first round earlier this month, Bolsonaro bested Lula by more than 2.2 million votes, but neither candidate won an outright majority. France 24 put the first-round totals at 47 percent for Bolsonaro and 45 percent for Lula, and Breitbart noted that 13 presidential candidates appeared on the ballot. More than 33 million of nearly 160 million voters did not turn out.1,3,4,5
Shortly after polls closed, Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ruled to extend voting nationwide by two hours. Both candidates had asked the electoral court to extend voting hours in some cities before the ruling. Lula’s request followed problems in nine states with buses that transport voters to the polls, while Bolsonaro’s request followed heavy rains in Brazil’s south. Polls had been expected to close nationwide at 5 p.m. local time.1,5
In Brasília, volunteers who oversaw the vote count at a school debated whether they needed to stay after the announcement. Most left 15 to 20 minutes after polls closed, having already given count information to electoral authorities.1
Lula has faced a tough reelection battle because of voter concerns about the cost of living and security. France 24 reported that his approval ratings had fallen as low as 24 percent this term. Bolsonaro made a tough-on-crime approach the cornerstone of his campaign and pledged to bring down food costs. He has proposed building El Salvador-style megaprisons, designating transnational gangs as terrorist organizations and trying defendants as young as 16 as adults.1,3
Both candidates have been affected by corruption suspicions involving family members and allies. Bolsonaro has admitted accepting about $12 million from disgraced former banker Daniel Vorcaro to produce a film on his father’s life, and he is under investigation for corruption, money laundering and tax evasion in connection with the case. Lula previously spent more than a year in prison on corruption convictions that were eventually annulled.1,3
Lula, trying to win over undecided voters, has pursued costly measures. His government endorsed a debt relief program for small businesses and promised free public transportation on weekends. France 24 reported that his government pardoned the debts of 3.6 million small businesses, cut fuel taxes and raised payments through the Bolsa Familia program by 15 percent. The Senate also approved rules to reduce the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours while enshrining two rest days without a salary cut.1,3
The two campaigns have also been locked in a dispute over financial disclosure. Breitbart reported that Lula said he would not share a stage with Bolsonaro unless Bolsonaro disclosed extensive financial, tax and phone records for his family. Bolsonaro agreed and issued a counter-challenge asking Lula to disclose his own corporate credit card expenses. Brazilian Supreme Court Justice André Mendonça said both campaigns could release the information without the judiciary, and that it was not up to the Superior Electoral Tribunal to decide what each candidate disclosed. As of Friday morning, Breitbart reported, none of the information had been made public, and a final televised debate on TV Globo was still scheduled for Friday night.4
Polls before the vote were not uniform. A summary of 17 surveys published by the Brazilian outlet Poder 360, as cited by Breitbart, showed Bolsonaro numerically ahead in 15 and Lula ahead only in a Vox Brasil poll, while a Datafolha poll showed both candidates tied at 50 percent. Breitbart said the differences in most polls were within the margin of error.4
As Bolsonaro voted at a school in Rio de Janeiro, his supporters shouted “Lula, thief, your place is in prison” while Lula’s supporters chanted in his support. “The time of real change has arrived,” Bolsonaro said. “Brazil can’t go on for another four years on its current trajectory.” Bolsonaro has promised to seek an amnesty for his father if elected. Lula, who voted in Sao Bernardo do Campo, where he began his political career as a union leader in the 1960s, thanked his supporters. “It is a lot of generosity, a lot of care, a lot of love. I will be forever grateful,” Lula said.1,5
Among voters, Luzia da Souza, who runs a bar in Rio de Janeiro, said, “Lula is a man of the people and he knows what it’s like to be poor.” Anderson Falcão, a 43-year-old journalist in Brasília, described Bolsonaro’s long-term political vision as “exclusionary,” saying, “It’s a project that harms the less fortunate, harms the worker, women, the forest, the Amazon.” Fabianne Borges Santoro, a 45-year-old physiotherapist in Rio de Janeiro, said, “Things are really expensive and taxes are too high.”1
Lula has warned the United States not to meddle in Brazil’s elections and has made defending the country’s sovereignty a key campaign issue. France 24 reported that the Trump administration did not respond to a request for comment on whether it was seeking to influence the outcome. Shortly after receiving Bolsonaro at the White House, Trump classified Brazil’s biggest drug-trafficking groups as foreign terrorist organizations, a move Lula’s administration opposed as a pretext for intervention. The outcome of Sunday’s vote was not yet known, and the winner must secure more than half the ballots to take office in January.3
