Brazil's electoral court said Sunday that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had won a fourth, nonconsecutive term, defeating Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, in the runoff vote.4,6
With more than 99 percent of ballots counted, Lula had received 64 million votes, or 51.77 percent, to Bolsonaro's 48.23 percent. Lula, 80, is the first candidate since Brazil's return to democracy in the 1980s to be elected after finishing second in the first round, a position from which he overtook Flávio Bolsonaro, who had finished first.3,6
Lula thanked the Brazilian people after the result, but Bolsonaro told reporters he would not accept the results and said they should be annulled, according to translations of his remarks cited by Axios. Bolsonaro was reported to be refusing to concede, and the reports said Flávio Bolsonaro had not conceded. The reports did not say whether or when he would.1,3,4
Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting by two hours in response to complaints from both campaigns to the electoral court, and the announcement of the results came only after that extension. Lula pointed to reports of hampered public transportation that had kept people from reaching polling stations in several states. Flávio Bolsonaro claimed inclement weather had affected voters in places where he had performed well in the first round. The order was issued after some stations had already closed, causing confusion.3
Speaking after the win, Lula said, "I am going to deliver the best term of any president." During the campaign he pointed to a track record of falling poverty and inequality, and unemployment, illiteracy and deforestation hit record lows during his third term. Axios put the decline in Amazon deforestation at 71 percent since 2022, reaching its lowest annual level on record in 2026. Federal lawmaker Erika Hilton, who was with Lula in São Paulo during the vote count, told Reuters: "He is a statesman, a giant."4,6
During the campaign, Lula warned that Bolsonaro would cut welfare spending, backslide on social advances and hand over Brazil's sovereignty to President Donald Trump. Flávio Bolsonaro had told the CPAC conference in late March 2026, "Brazil will be the battleground where the future of the hemisphere will be fought." Matthew Taylor, a Brazil politics expert at American University, wrote that substantive policy debate was limited, with both candidates focusing largely on corruption allegations against the opposing camp.3,4,6
Relations between Brazil and the United States have at times been strained under Lula. Mother Jones put the tariffs the Trump administration imposed on Brazilian goods at 50 percent, and said the administration had also imposed sanctions on judicial authorities and revoked the visa of Brazil's ambassador to the United States, Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti. Axios described additional 25 percent tariffs on some Brazilian goods imposed this summer. Axios reported that Lula accused Bolsonaro of being "Trump's candidate" and accused the U.S. president of wanting to "colonize" Brazil. Lula said Brazil does not "fit into anyone's backyard" and that its destiny was for the Brazilian people to decide.3,4
Celso Amorim, a former Lula foreign minister, told Reuters the leftist "would be very important for establishing a point of balance in Latin America. Lula is that balance." Pollsters said better-than-expected turnout had powered Lula to victory. Leonardo Barreto, the co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, said voters had chosen Lula's familiar embrace over Bolsonaro's novelty. "People today are choosing between change, with some apprehension, and a known path, which guarantees certain rights," he said. The result also deprives Trump of a major addition to a growing bloc of friendly right-wing Latin American governments.6
Lula's fourth term could be his most difficult yet, after Brazil elected its most conservative Congress since the return to democracy in the 1980s. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party and allied parties could together control more than 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 seats in the Senate, enough for comfortable majorities in both chambers. "He is likely to be a lame duck from the start," said Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in São Paulo.6
Lula faces an economy that his government forecasts will grow 2.3 percent next year. Public debt has risen past 82 percent of GDP, the highest since the pandemic, and high interest rates have added to fiscal concerns. The president's critics blame spending, though interest costs have driven most of the increase in debt. Goldman Sachs said it expects Lula to make modest progress at most in containing spending in a fourth term, as he stays committed to a state-led growth model.6
Free nationwide weekend public transport has to be formally submitted to Congress, while a 15 percent increase in his trademark welfare program is already being implemented. Lula also championed a constitutional amendment that became Brazil's biggest labor reform in decades, which passed with wide support in Congress. Stuenkel predicted Lula would face waning influence over Supreme Court nominations, unwieldy party coalitions and even the threat of impeachment, while experts say the incoming right-wing Congress will try to pass structural reforms that favor businesses.6
The New York Post's headline led with Lula's standing as a Trump critic and his reelection to a fourth presidential term.2
