Brazilians will vote on Sunday, October 25, in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, after a first round that left the two men separated by a narrow margin.1,4,8
The first round was held on October 4, when Flávio Bolsonaro came out slightly ahead with about 47 percent of the vote to 45 percent for Lula. The Nation put Bolsonaro's margin at 1.87 percent of valid votes. Neither candidate reached 50 percent, which sent the race to a second round. Voting is compulsory for most adults in Brazil, yet about 33 million people did not cast ballots, the highest abstention since 1998. The Nation put the figure at 33.4 million, or 21 percent of the electorate.1,4,7,8
In Osasco, a sprawling former industrial city now dubbed São Paulo's "Silicon Valley," shuttered factories have given way to shopping malls and delivery-app technology companies. Osasco voted for Lula in 2022 but switched to Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round. Gilberto Almazan, who leads a metalworkers' union there, described the change in the local workforce. "We had strong deindustrialisation here," Almazan said. "The profile of the working class changed. They are no longer predominantly industrial workers, they are service workers."1
Many Bolsonaro supporters in Osasco speak often of change, although many struggle to name specific policies they like. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who backed Lula in 2022, said: "He brings the hope of change, that we can have a different Brazil." Tairine, a hot dog seller who used to abstain from voting, plans to vote for Bolsonaro. She says high taxes make life "so difficult for a poor person," and argues that "nothing has changed" since Lula became president again.1
Richard Lapper, who has written biographies of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, said the decline of manufacturing and the rise of individualised work are not unique to Brazil, but their effects have been sharper there because the country industrialised late and deindustrialised early. He called Lula a "victim of his own success." Unemployment fell to a record low during Lula's current presidency, and Brazil was taken off the United Nations Hunger Map. Lapper described a crisis of "expectations," in which people are better off but do not feel it, because prices have risen and household debt and interest rates are high.1
Almazan calls the spread of app-based work "Uber-isation," and says many workers want "more freedom, flexibility of days and hours" than the welfare and collective action Lula offered. Lula's supporters credit him with advancing workers' rights and lifting millions out of poverty. Tamara Moreira, secretary of the Rocinha Residents Association in Rio de Janeiro, backs him for his social policies, including cash transfers through Bolsa Familia. "As a mother, I need access to social benefits, health care, schools, programs like Bolsa Familia, and food assistance," she said. Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending, ministries and some taxes, though he has said he would keep some of Lula's flagship welfare programmes.1,7
The two men's backgrounds are described differently across the reports. The Intercept said Jair Bolsonaro is on house arrest for his role in a failed 2023 military coup, while The Nation said he is currently in jail for an attempted coup d'état in 2022. PBS described him as having been convicted for leading an attempted coup. Both Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro have faced corruption claims, which Flávio has denied.1,3,7,8
After the first round, Flávio Bolsonaro announced plans to modify the 1988 Constitution to "redemocratize the country," proposing to abolish reelections and reform the Supreme Court, according to The Nation. Experts warned that a right-wing majority in the Senate could be used to impeach ministers who voted to convict Jair Bolsonaro. Wallace Corbo, a professor of constitutional law, told The Nation: "Substituting the 1988 Constitution in a context of the rise of authoritarian governments, with very low popular participation, is very problematic in terms of legitimacy, democracy, and rights for citizens and workers." Flávio Bolsonaro said at a campaign event: "It's the end of the Lula era and we will be in power for decades."8
Lula's campaign has moved to mobilise voters, particularly students, onto the streets. A WhatsApp channel called "Lula's army," led by an MP, has garnered more than 8 million followers, according to France 24. Lula has handed control of his campaign to younger party officials, and in a meeting with allied lawmakers he admitted: "This is the least-organised campaign I have taken part in since 1989, and we reap what we sow." The campaign claims one rally in São Paulo drew about a million people.1,4
The Lula campaign has accused Meta of "algorithmic manipulation" in Bolsonaro's favour and asked the Superior Electoral Court to annul the challenger's candidacy, according to France 24. Bolsonaro accused the incumbent of "abuse of power" for flooding WhatsApp with content praising his government's record. The court threatened Meta with a fine of around R$500,000 (€88,500) per day, and the company says it has put measures in place to guarantee equal treatment of both candidates. In a request for comment, Meta said: "Meta applies the same rules to every candidate, every party and every political viewpoint in Brazil, as we do in elections around the world." Andrew Fishman, a Rio de Janeiro-based investigative journalist, told The Intercept there are "pieces of circumstantial evidence that suggest that Meta is interfering in this election."3,4,8
Polls have tightened. An AtlasIntel poll on October 9 gave Flávio Bolsonaro 52.8 percent to Lula's 47.2 percent. Ten days later, the same firm had Bolsonaro at 51.1 percent against 48.9 percent for Lula, while other pollsters, including Datafolha, Quaest and CNT/MDA, showed a gap of just one or two points. Patricia Campos Mello, editor-at-large at Folha de S.Paulo, said: "And now we have the tightest contest ever in Brazilian history, electoral history. I mean, it's virtually tied."4,7
In Congress, the Senate approved a measure to end the six-day work week by 75 votes to 1, a vote that the Bolsonarist camp, initially opposed, ended up supporting. Lula said in a video posted on Instagram: "It is important to remember that our opponents decided yesterday to vote for this measure. But let's stay vigilant! They voted for it out of electoral opportunism." The first debate between the candidates took place on October 18 on the Band channel and lasted nearly two hours. Political scientist Joao Ferres of the University of Rio de Janeiro said that "debates are watched less and less by Brazilians and do not influence voting intentions much."4
Lula, speaking through an interpreter, sounded confident about the final stretch: "I am convinced there is no reason why we shouldn't be elected president of the republic in the run-off. There is no reason, economic, social, or political."7
