The United Nations Environment Programme concluded in a new report released Wednesday that it is now inevitable global temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the target set in the 2015 Paris climate agreement.2,3
The report, titled the Emissions Gap Report 2026, comes as the world is on course to breach the commitment to limit global warming laid out in the Paris agreement. Climate experts said that crossing the 1.5-degree mark would increase risks of extreme weather events caused by climate change. NPR's headline on the report described it as highlighting a significant increase in U.S. climate pollution.1,2
The report said the goal should now be more modest. Its aim, it said, should be to push the temperature deviation back below the 1.5-degree limit by the year 2100. Doing so would require cutting greenhouse gas emissions 69 percent by 2040.2
"While it is now inevitable that warming will exceed 1.5°C by more than 0.1°C, it is still possible to minimize the magnitude and duration of this overshoot, and to return global warming to or below 1.5°C by the end of the century," the report reads.2
Climate goals have taken a backseat in recent years to energy security and affordability, particularly because of fuel supply chain shocks caused by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.2
The report also assessed national climate plans. Fewer G20 countries are making enough progress to meet their 2030 national climate action plans, and climate targets for 2035 vary in ambition. All G20 nations except Argentina, Saudi Arabia and the United States have submitted new nationally determined contributions with mitigation targets for 2035.2
The material reviewed for this story did not include the full text of NPR's findings on U.S. emissions, so the size of the reported increase in U.S. climate pollution, and the sources and time period behind it, are not known from these reports. The article's own text was not available for France 24's coverage either, which in its headline framed the story as the world being set to breach the 1.5-degree limit.1,3
No comment from the United States government or from the report's authors on the U.S. findings appeared in the material reviewed. The reports did not specify any further meetings, deadlines or policy steps that would follow the release.1,2,3