ExxonMobil and Chevron on Friday reported profits that beat expectations, with ExxonMobil saying its profit doubled from the same period last year and Chevron saying its earnings rose more than 180 percent from a year earlier, as oil prices remained sharply elevated during the United States war with Iran.1
The two largest U.S. oil companies are seeing strong share gains, while consumers are paying more for fuel ahead of the midterm elections, where voters have repeatedly said that prices and inflation are primary concerns. Exxon said it was increasing the dividend it pays to investors, and since the start of the year Exxon shares have risen 52 percent and Chevron shares have returned 50 percent.1
The returns came as the price of oil stayed beyond $100 per barrel for months. On Friday, prices accelerated again, with Brent oil trading just under $118 per barrel. The highest level that Brent reached since the United States and Israel launched the Iran war in late February was $126, which it is now approaching again. Overnight, BP reported that its profit rose to an 18-year high.1
The average price of regular gasoline has risen 40 percent for consumers since the war broke out. In 2024, Donald Trump repeatedly pledged to drive energy costs down. "My plan will cut energy prices in half or more than that within 12 months of taking office," the then-candidate said in September 2024, while adding that it would mean "gasoline below $2 a gallon." As of Friday, the average gasoline price is currently more than double that.1
In recent rallies on the campaign trail, the president has celebrated the higher oil and gas profits. "I wonder if I should say this," Trump mused aloud during a rally Oct. 24, before saying "our country is making hundreds of billions of dollars because of what's happened in the Middle East." He continued, "My people said, 'Please don't mention that, sir,' because people are paying a little higher," and added, "But what we've done for this country, we're making money like this country has never made before."1
"I don't give a damn: I'm going to say it. We're making a freaking fortune," Trump said. The higher prices are also a result of the war between Ukraine and Russia following President Vladimir Putin's full-scale invasion of his neighbor in 2022.1
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods pointed to disruptions to shipping and refining. "There's a lot of disruption happening in the world," Woods told CNBC on Friday morning. "What you're finding is because of the closure" in the Strait of Hormuz, "shipping has to find new routes around to continue to deliver the products that society desperately needs." He added, "About half of Russia's refinery capacity has been taken out from the Ukraine bombing," Woods said.1
Woods said a shortage of refining capacity was pushing up prices for finished fuels, especially diesel. "That shortage of refining capacity and availability to the world is what's driving product prices as high as it is, and frankly, diesel is the key crunch point here because it is so critical to economic growth," Woods continued. Since the start of the year, the average nationwide price for diesel fuel has risen 78 percent. New York-traded diesel futures have risen 130 percent since the start of the year, likely indicating more price rises could still come at the pump.1
Both Exxon and Chevron said that they were running their refineries at maximum output to continue making as much diesel as possible. On Friday, Woods said his refineries were already being pushed to the limit. "We are at record levels of utilization for our refineries," he said on CNBC. "If you look at North America, we produce record volumes of diesel. That's all been a function of trying to drive more product into the marketplace to meet that demand and to drive costs down," Woods said.1
Trump has taken specific note of the impact that diesel could have on the economy. The administration has quickly issued multiple orders and policies in an attempt to bring prices down. The president signed an order allowing more widespread use of an off-road dyed variety of diesel, has pressured European allies to release more of the diesel reserves into the global market, and has announced a deal with Putin for some of that country's diesel supplies.1
Trump's latest move came last week, when he announced $150 million in Defense Production Act funding to "expand petroleum production, storage, and logistics at refineries across." The moves have not meaningfully brought prices down.1
