Dems rush to polls with lopsided majorities of mail-in votes before blockbuster elections
Democrats are once again availing themselves of early voting and mail ballots to build up a pre-election edge, which Republicans will try to beat back through Election Day voting.
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Read the original articleNew York Post · nypost.comOur verdict
Political lean
0 = center. The further from 0, the stronger the lean (max 10).
Reporting balance
How complete and even-handed the reporting is — separate from which side it leans.
This is a mostly data-driven news report with attributed figures and one cautious academic interpretation, leaning very slightly right through emotive wording such as 'leftyDemocrat' and 'overwhelming'. The main weakness is the headline and lede, which present registration shares as vote majorities even though the body admits the figures do not show how people voted. Readers should treat the Democratic early lead as a turnout-registration snapshot, not a result, and look for Republican strategist analysis and 2022 baselines for other states.
- Why this lean
- Most of the article is data reporting with attribution, and the only analyst quoted is cautious. The slight right-of-center tilt comes from the caption calling Jackson a 'leftyDemocrat' and the headline/lede framing that stresses Democratic advantage. Trump's remarks are given the most vivid language, though they are attributed. Overall the lean is close to center with a slight edge that a reader should note.
- Framing
- Told as a horse-race-style story about which party's voters are turning out early, treating Democratic registration advantage as the central question, with the 'enthusiasm' and turnout-wave debate as the secondary question.
Confidence: Medium — The text is a single article with partial captions and reader comments, and the TargetSmart/NBC methodology is not described in the text, so the data's reliability cannot be checked here.
Key Findings
- 1The lede says Democrats are 'running up lopsided majorities of the early votes' and 'carving out a clear majority of the votes cast', but the paragraph after the Michigan figures says the 55-36 edge is 'based on voters' registrations', and the article later concedes that 'None of the data show how people actually voted'. The headline and lede therefore claim more than the data support.
- 2The article gives a fair comparison in Nebraska (45-38 now vs 44-41 in 2022) and a repeat-voter breakdown (89% of Democrats, 91% of Republicans previously voted), which lets readers judge whether the shift reflects new voters. This is a clear strength.
- 3Stephen Voss is the only analyst quoted, and his caveat about whether these are 'upper status voters who always vote anyway' is the article's most useful interpretive contribution. It is not followed by any Republican or Democratic strategist offering a competing reading.
- 4Trump's remarks take up the final part of the article and include 'radical left' and 'Dumocrats' in his own words. They are attributed, but the article gives no fact-check or counterpoint to the 'inherently corrupt' claim about mail voting.
- 5Emotive wording appears in the body ('overwhelming 62-32%', 'flood of early turnout') and a caption ('leftyDemocrat Troy Jackson'). These words push the tone toward a Democratic-advantage narrative without changing the underlying figures.
- 6Most states are presented as single snapshots (Michigan, Iowa, Maine, Texas) without 2022 baselines, which makes it hard to tell whether Democratic shares are unusual or in line with past early voting.
Who gets a voice
- TargetSmart and NBC News (state election data)Data compilers whose registration figures anchor the articleData-driven, neutralMain voice
- Stephen VossUniversity of Kentucky political scientist offering interpretationAcademic, cautiousMain voice
- Donald TrumpFormer and current Republican figure quoted from a video and remarksRepublican, pro-Election Day votingMinor voice
- Nebraska Secretary of StateOfficial source for repeat-voter figuresOfficial, neutralMinor voice
Loaded language
Implies a decisive vote result when the figures are registration shares of ballots cast so far.
'Overwhelming' is an evaluative word that amplifies a registration snapshot.
'Flood' is emotive and suggests an unusual surge without the baseline context for a fair comparison.
Ideological label in a caption that adds a partisan tone to a description of a candidate.
Dimension Breakdown
Only one independent analyst (Voss) interprets the data. The party-side voices are a Trump video quote and no Democratic or Republican campaign or strategist, so the range of perspectives is narrow.
Body wording is mostly plain, but 'lopsided majorities', 'overwhelming 62-32%', and 'flood of early turnout' add emphasis, and the caption 'leftyDemocrat Troy Jackson' is an emotive label. 'Battling' recurs as a neutral-ish verb.
Figures are attributed to TargetSmart/NBC and the Nebraska Secretary of State, and the article notes that registration is not vote choice. However, most states show a single snapshot with no baseline, and the 2022 comparison is given only for Nebraska and Virginia.
Voss offers a balanced caveat ('upper status voters who always vote anyway'), but Republican and Democratic campaigns, election officials in most states, and candidates are absent, so the interpretation rests mainly on the data source and one academic.
The headline and lede imply vote totals ('lopsided majorities of the early votes', 'clear majority of the votes cast'), but the figures are registration shares of ballots already cast. The body acknowledges this only in the fourth paragraph, so the lede overstates the data.
Some useful context is provided (2022 comparison in Nebraska and Virginia, the 89% and 91% repeat-voter figures, Trump's shifting message). Missing: explanation of how these state counts were compiled, the historical partisan split in mail voting after 2020, and what 'other' voters represent.
Missing Perspectives
- Republican campaign or party strategists, who could explain their plan to close the early-vote gap on Election Day and whether they see the figures as a warning.
- Democratic campaign voices, who could explain whether the early-vote data changes their turnout strategy.
- State election officials in Michigan, Iowa, Maine and Texas, who could explain how the registration counts were compiled and their limits.
- Historical context on how the partisan split in mail and early voting has shifted since 2020, which is needed to interpret 'lead' in these numbers.
Highlighted Passages
“Democrats are running up lopsided majorities of the early votes”
“the Democratic edge is an overwhelming 62-32%”
“But in Maine, where longtime Sen. Susan Collins is trying to fend off leftyDemocrat Troy Jackson”
“Virginia is seeing a flood of early turnout”
Key Facts
- According to TargetSmart and NBC News state data, 54% of early and mail-in voters were Democrats, 30% Republicans and 16% independents or other.
- Nearly 8 million Americans had cast votes nationally as of Friday night, according to the article.
- In Nebraska, the Democratic edge is 45-38 now versus 44-41 at this point in 2022, according to the article's data.
- According to the Nebraska Secretary of State, 89% of Democrats who have voted also voted in 2022 and 2024, and 10% are new voters.
- Virginia has 519,000 ballots in, compared with 260,000 by this point in 2022, according to the article.
- The article states that none of the data show how people actually voted, only who showed up or sent in ballots.
- Stephen Voss says it is unclear whether the early numbers signal a broader wave or only 'upper status voters who always vote anyway'.
- Trump has said mail voting is 'inherently corrupt' but is now encouraging early voting in person or by mail.